* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 63 64 66 69 70 74 75 77 74 75 V (KT) LAND 60 60 62 63 64 66 69 70 74 75 77 74 75 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 59 59 60 61 64 68 70 70 67 62 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 15 16 13 23 19 21 21 33 32 30 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 7 4 2 0 1 4 8 1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 359 341 333 315 298 284 280 261 227 222 213 227 205 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 163 163 163 159 153 148 141 136 131 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 142 145 144 140 135 128 124 118 113 108 103 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 52 57 57 59 59 62 59 57 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 26 26 27 29 31 35 38 41 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR 13 2 -12 -10 -5 -11 19 40 61 75 80 72 77 200 MB DIV 24 5 19 13 9 37 81 44 88 79 76 19 43 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 -6 0 0 10 19 21 21 13 13 8 LAND (KM) 664 656 660 696 737 809 742 689 606 513 398 365 400 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.4 27.3 28.3 29.4 30.5 31.8 33.3 34.8 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.7 68.5 69.3 70.2 71.6 72.7 72.9 72.5 72.3 72.4 72.0 71.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 40 47 40 29 31 39 39 39 38 26 4 34 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 16. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 14. 15. 17. 14. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.0 66.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.55 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.49 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 506.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.44 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 17.8% 14.0% 10.3% 9.1% 13.2% 10.6% 5.3% Logistic: 5.2% 6.7% 4.7% 3.9% 2.2% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 8.3% 6.3% 4.8% 3.8% 5.8% 3.9% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/14/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 62 63 64 66 69 70 74 75 77 74 75 18HR AGO 60 59 61 62 63 65 68 69 73 74 76 73 74 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 58 60 63 64 68 69 71 68 69 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 53 56 57 61 62 64 61 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT