* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 62 63 63 66 68 71 72 73 70 69 V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 62 63 63 66 68 71 72 73 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 59 60 60 61 63 66 68 69 66 61 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 17 17 14 15 20 21 21 24 32 37 34 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 4 8 5 0 3 2 2 3 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 358 3 350 318 315 290 286 261 244 228 225 233 224 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 161 163 163 161 154 152 143 132 132 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 142 141 141 142 141 137 129 127 121 110 108 106 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 49 52 52 53 55 58 57 59 61 61 65 64 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 26 25 25 27 30 33 36 40 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR -6 9 -3 -19 -15 -18 -7 22 51 64 85 79 84 200 MB DIV -10 19 -4 7 16 9 81 57 63 59 61 31 61 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 0 12 16 13 16 7 5 LAND (KM) 682 672 672 688 714 802 837 757 698 620 509 515 554 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.1 27.0 28.2 29.1 30.0 31.4 33.3 34.5 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 66.2 67.0 67.7 68.4 69.2 70.4 71.7 72.1 71.7 71.2 71.0 70.4 69.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 7 7 7 4 6 9 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 40 47 40 28 35 41 38 39 29 15 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. -0. -1. 1. 4. 8. 10. 14. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.8 66.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.46 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.47 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 505.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.44 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 15.9% 12.6% 9.6% 8.4% 12.5% 9.3% 4.4% Logistic: 4.2% 7.5% 5.3% 4.9% 2.5% 3.3% 1.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 7.9% 6.0% 4.9% 3.6% 5.3% 3.5% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/14/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 60 62 63 63 66 68 71 72 73 70 69 18HR AGO 60 59 59 61 62 62 65 67 70 71 72 69 68 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 59 59 62 64 67 68 69 66 65 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 51 54 56 59 60 61 58 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT