* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/14/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 68 69 71 70 69 70 70 69 69 70 V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 68 69 71 70 69 70 70 69 69 70 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 66 67 67 68 68 68 68 66 63 59 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 16 14 15 15 24 24 33 36 38 32 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 5 5 1 3 3 1 0 -2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 360 358 356 324 311 281 282 263 248 222 230 230 226 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.6 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 161 162 162 163 160 154 145 133 133 134 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 140 144 143 141 135 130 122 112 110 109 100 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 51 50 56 57 58 57 61 59 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 24 24 24 26 27 28 30 34 36 39 41 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -2 6 7 -11 -11 -18 18 24 56 71 65 50 200 MB DIV -8 -11 10 -3 15 30 44 90 52 61 58 60 16 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -5 -5 -2 3 1 11 23 12 10 3 3 LAND (KM) 701 691 685 706 741 846 875 763 663 610 615 625 518 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.8 26.3 27.4 28.4 29.6 31.2 32.8 34.4 35.8 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 66.2 66.7 67.1 68.0 68.8 70.4 71.1 71.2 70.8 70.1 69.3 68.8 68.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 7 9 9 7 6 7 8 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 42 46 32 37 40 37 25 15 12 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.0 66.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.47 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.41 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 584.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.37 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 16.3% 13.2% 10.0% 9.0% 12.7% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 5.7% 3.9% 3.1% 2.0% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 7.5% 5.8% 4.5% 3.7% 5.3% 3.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/14/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 66 68 69 71 70 69 70 70 69 69 70 18HR AGO 65 64 65 67 68 70 69 68 69 69 68 68 69 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 64 66 65 64 65 65 64 64 65 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 58 57 56 57 57 56 56 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT