* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 61 60 58 60 57 59 57 59 59 61 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 61 60 58 60 57 59 57 59 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 62 61 60 58 57 57 58 58 57 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 21 21 20 17 17 24 21 29 35 40 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 5 3 1 5 0 2 2 4 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 358 2 353 347 346 315 316 304 277 261 242 239 225 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.0 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 158 159 161 163 161 157 148 136 132 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 131 136 138 142 143 138 133 127 115 108 106 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 51 49 49 49 52 52 57 57 58 60 61 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 22 21 21 21 23 22 25 25 29 32 36 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -13 -17 -17 -5 -21 -13 -17 19 33 42 63 94 200 MB DIV 2 -4 -5 -5 -7 34 19 50 71 45 46 30 77 700-850 TADV 8 3 0 -3 -5 -4 -4 0 11 12 11 9 11 LAND (KM) 767 750 733 706 684 708 796 884 773 673 656 659 642 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.3 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.9 26.9 28.0 29.1 30.6 32.4 33.6 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.6 65.7 65.8 66.3 66.9 68.3 69.9 71.2 71.8 71.3 69.8 69.1 69.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 5 6 8 8 7 6 9 9 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 38 38 37 40 49 37 40 38 35 16 16 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -2. -4. -2. -2. 3. 6. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -5. -8. -6. -8. -6. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.4 65.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.31 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.36 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 571.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.38 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 13.9% 11.4% 9.0% 8.0% 11.5% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 2.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.4% 4.3% 3.3% 2.7% 4.6% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/13/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 63 61 60 58 60 57 59 57 59 59 61 18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 60 58 60 57 59 57 59 59 61 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 58 56 58 55 57 55 57 57 59 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 52 54 51 53 51 53 53 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT