* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 57 56 54 50 53 53 55 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 57 56 54 50 53 53 55 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 62 60 57 53 51 50 49 50 52 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 30 31 27 24 21 21 22 25 25 27 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 3 5 5 2 4 -3 -1 0 3 5 -3 SHEAR DIR 345 360 4 4 352 339 313 304 299 271 252 242 241 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 157 158 161 163 162 160 154 146 136 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 130 134 137 143 143 139 135 131 123 113 108 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.2 -50.3 -51.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 50 52 50 50 50 53 55 58 58 56 61 61 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 23 25 25 22 25 25 27 30 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -8 -7 -11 -18 -13 -22 -13 -3 18 45 54 81 200 MB DIV -19 20 6 0 0 -19 14 16 72 57 57 100 38 700-850 TADV 11 12 6 2 -3 -3 -3 0 6 16 22 21 13 LAND (KM) 793 767 735 725 701 696 769 856 875 781 727 705 702 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.4 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.6 26.6 27.5 28.4 29.6 31.2 32.4 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.6 65.5 65.8 66.2 67.6 69.3 70.6 71.1 70.9 69.9 69.2 68.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 3 5 8 8 6 5 7 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 40 38 37 50 39 38 40 38 20 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -3. -3. -2. 1. 5. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -8. -11. -15. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.7 65.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.36 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 580.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.37 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 9.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.3% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/13/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 61 57 56 54 50 53 53 55 57 59 60 18HR AGO 65 64 62 58 57 55 51 54 54 56 58 60 61 12HR AGO 65 62 61 57 56 54 50 53 53 55 57 59 60 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 52 48 51 51 53 55 57 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT