* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 63 60 58 58 57 55 56 57 60 59 V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 63 60 58 58 57 55 56 57 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 64 62 58 55 52 51 51 51 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 25 27 27 23 21 25 30 24 35 34 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 9 5 3 1 4 -1 -7 -1 -1 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 356 349 357 2 360 349 323 308 299 281 263 251 257 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 155 155 155 159 161 163 163 156 149 139 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 132 131 132 138 141 142 139 132 127 116 113 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 -50.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 51 53 50 49 50 52 57 58 58 59 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 24 24 22 23 24 24 23 24 26 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -36 -16 -17 -15 -15 -25 -29 -16 -1 5 44 44 200 MB DIV -52 -39 8 -12 -26 -13 -2 18 9 90 40 49 44 700-850 TADV 3 9 11 6 3 -3 -5 0 -4 14 16 17 12 LAND (KM) 825 814 792 768 745 708 710 787 900 801 757 744 770 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.4 25.9 26.8 27.9 29.3 30.7 32.0 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 66.2 65.8 65.3 65.5 65.7 66.8 68.2 69.7 70.9 71.0 70.0 69.0 68.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 3 3 6 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 38 38 38 39 50 37 39 39 25 14 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. 1. 3. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. -9. -8. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 26.3 66.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.19 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.36 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.03 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 573.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.38 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 10.3% 8.6% 7.5% 6.4% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/13/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 64 63 60 58 58 57 55 56 57 60 59 18HR AGO 65 64 64 63 60 58 58 57 55 56 57 60 59 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 57 55 55 54 52 53 54 57 56 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 50 50 49 47 48 49 52 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT