* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/13/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 64 65 61 62 59 59 60 61 64 66 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 64 65 61 62 59 59 60 61 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 66 66 65 62 59 56 55 55 55 57 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 25 25 26 26 20 23 24 24 25 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 6 6 3 1 2 -6 -2 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 357 358 348 1 360 356 344 324 306 306 266 249 246 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 156 156 154 156 159 161 163 161 152 145 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 135 133 129 134 138 140 141 139 129 123 122 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 11 11 12 11 12 10 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 51 50 48 52 55 56 56 55 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 23 25 24 26 25 26 27 28 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -38 -35 -20 -13 -21 -21 -21 -20 1 7 60 63 200 MB DIV -40 -47 -34 -4 -14 -17 -16 2 28 46 65 59 72 700-850 TADV 5 7 10 12 3 4 -1 -1 0 2 14 15 12 LAND (KM) 843 832 827 797 762 767 719 738 820 910 754 734 840 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.3 25.4 25.6 26.2 27.1 28.4 30.1 31.3 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 66.7 66.2 65.6 65.3 65.0 65.6 67.0 68.4 69.7 70.5 70.7 69.7 67.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 1 5 7 7 7 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 37 36 38 42 37 42 49 37 36 34 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 4. 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -0. -4. -3. -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 26.7 66.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.37 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 550.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.40 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 10.4% 8.7% 7.7% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 3.3% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.3% 4.2% 3.5% 3.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/13/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 65 64 65 61 62 59 59 60 61 64 66 18HR AGO 65 64 64 63 64 60 61 58 58 59 60 63 65 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 61 57 58 55 55 56 57 60 62 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 52 53 50 50 51 52 55 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT