* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 66 64 64 62 58 57 54 56 56 57 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 66 64 64 62 58 57 54 56 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 65 65 63 60 57 54 52 52 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 21 22 23 20 18 21 18 22 18 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 4 5 9 5 3 0 0 2 5 4 SHEAR DIR 347 356 346 340 352 344 346 316 311 297 280 257 239 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 159 156 155 158 161 163 163 158 151 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 135 136 133 131 137 142 144 140 133 126 122 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 59 56 54 52 50 45 49 53 58 57 58 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 23 21 25 25 24 24 24 26 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -38 -38 -37 -26 -25 -16 -29 -24 -21 5 19 53 200 MB DIV -3 -40 -46 -44 -15 -11 6 2 -1 20 90 59 56 700-850 TADV 11 8 8 11 9 5 -2 -7 -1 -2 8 13 12 LAND (KM) 905 891 882 856 836 790 723 694 763 857 785 690 654 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.4 25.7 26.6 27.7 28.7 29.7 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 67.7 67.1 66.5 66.1 65.6 65.6 66.5 68.0 69.9 71.4 72.3 72.3 71.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 4 3 5 8 9 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 38 35 36 37 37 51 37 42 37 39 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. -0. 3. 3. 1. 1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -8. -11. -9. -9. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.6 67.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.27 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.38 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 495.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.45 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 14.6% 12.1% 9.7% 8.7% 11.6% 7.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 5.3% 4.0% 3.1% 1.7% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 6.6% 5.4% 4.3% 3.5% 4.8% 2.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/12/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 65 66 64 64 62 58 57 54 56 56 57 18HR AGO 65 64 64 65 63 63 61 57 56 53 55 55 56 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 60 60 58 54 53 50 52 52 53 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 53 51 47 46 43 45 45 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT