* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/12/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 60 60 60 60 60 58 60 60 62 66 V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 60 60 60 60 60 58 60 60 62 66 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 59 59 59 58 56 55 54 55 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 23 20 23 22 20 14 17 18 22 29 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 6 6 6 5 5 0 4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 347 353 351 343 337 4 352 324 314 280 276 249 245 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 159 159 158 157 158 161 164 165 161 154 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 137 137 135 134 136 143 146 145 138 130 124 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 55 53 49 46 49 54 58 59 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 24 26 27 28 27 28 28 31 35 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -41 -38 -29 -33 -14 -8 -7 -10 -4 5 13 45 200 MB DIV -24 6 -33 -57 -49 -31 0 14 10 19 96 63 54 700-850 TADV 17 7 2 6 12 2 0 -6 -3 0 12 9 12 LAND (KM) 878 877 884 864 849 764 690 648 674 756 729 667 531 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.5 25.0 25.2 25.8 26.8 28.1 29.3 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 67.8 67.0 66.5 65.9 65.9 66.4 67.8 69.9 71.7 72.8 73.6 74.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 6 5 4 5 8 10 9 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 45 42 38 36 36 37 48 35 38 39 32 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. 2. 5. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -5. -5. -3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.5 68.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 443.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.50 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.2% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/12/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 61 60 60 60 60 60 58 60 60 62 66 18HR AGO 65 64 62 61 61 61 61 61 59 61 61 63 67 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 60 60 60 60 58 60 60 62 66 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 55 55 55 53 55 55 57 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT