* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 60 60 61 62 62 60 62 65 68 70 70 V (KT) LAND 65 61 60 60 61 62 62 60 62 65 68 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 65 60 57 57 57 58 58 56 56 56 57 58 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 19 20 18 20 18 13 13 12 22 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 4 6 8 7 5 3 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 8 354 341 344 335 351 355 347 316 276 270 254 245 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 161 159 157 157 161 163 165 162 156 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 136 139 137 133 133 141 144 146 141 135 130 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -49.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 9 8 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 59 57 54 47 49 51 56 59 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 22 22 24 25 26 26 26 27 29 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -55 -43 -33 -38 -22 -22 -11 -13 -13 -11 22 13 200 MB DIV -43 -34 -9 -17 -43 -17 3 24 11 26 47 95 52 700-850 TADV 20 15 10 2 5 7 2 3 0 1 6 21 19 LAND (KM) 868 886 907 875 850 781 747 686 667 744 767 645 469 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.3 26.8 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.7 26.5 28.0 29.2 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.3 68.7 68.1 67.5 66.8 66.1 66.4 67.6 69.5 71.2 72.4 74.0 75.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 3 3 7 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 40 44 41 36 38 52 38 36 41 34 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -5. -3. -0. 3. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.5 69.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.36 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.39 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 401.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.54 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 8.3% 7.3% 7.1% 6.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.4% 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/12/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 61 60 60 61 62 62 60 62 65 68 70 70 18HR AGO 65 64 63 63 64 65 65 63 65 68 71 73 73 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 62 63 63 61 63 66 69 71 71 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 57 57 55 57 60 63 65 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT