* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 81 80 78 75 68 67 67 67 70 71 71 V (KT) LAND 85 83 81 80 78 75 68 67 67 67 70 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 85 83 80 78 77 75 73 70 68 67 67 69 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 22 22 19 23 23 25 17 12 12 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 1 4 6 2 4 3 2 3 4 SHEAR DIR 31 6 346 344 343 340 359 6 11 323 294 275 258 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 160 160 160 158 158 158 161 164 166 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 136 137 136 136 135 137 143 147 150 146 144 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.3 -50.6 -50.0 -50.4 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 8 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 56 59 59 59 61 58 55 52 54 55 59 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 22 22 22 24 24 26 28 29 31 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -49 -62 -57 -44 -36 -22 -10 4 -10 -6 -11 11 200 MB DIV -13 -15 -23 -7 26 -49 -37 5 17 1 47 56 95 700-850 TADV 8 11 13 12 3 4 5 0 -2 -2 -1 0 11 LAND (KM) 713 777 842 849 860 821 754 658 538 512 610 616 475 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.7 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.4 25.4 24.6 24.1 24.3 25.3 26.2 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.0 68.7 68.0 67.4 66.5 65.9 66.3 67.7 69.5 71.5 73.5 75.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 7 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 43 42 45 45 45 38 37 49 49 39 71 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. -11. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -17. -18. -18. -18. -15. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 26.1 69.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.35 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.95 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.22 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 488.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.46 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 12.0% 10.5% 8.4% 8.2% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 4.1% 3.4% 2.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 5.4% 4.6% 3.6% 3.2% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/11/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 81 80 78 75 68 67 67 67 70 71 71 18HR AGO 85 84 82 81 79 76 69 68 68 68 71 72 72 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 78 75 68 67 67 67 70 71 71 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 73 70 63 62 62 62 65 66 66 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 63 56 55 55 55 58 59 59 IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 62 55 54 54 54 57 58 58 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT