* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/11/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 84 84 84 82 78 74 73 72 73 78 79 V (KT) LAND 90 86 84 84 84 82 78 74 73 72 73 78 79 V (KT) LGEM 90 86 83 80 79 79 80 76 71 66 64 64 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 20 8 9 14 23 21 27 29 22 15 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 6 5 5 0 9 2 1 0 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 24 38 34 344 338 352 356 356 354 351 312 279 283 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 162 160 160 158 155 158 163 167 163 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 138 140 137 137 137 133 136 148 153 141 138 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 8 9 9 11 11 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 54 57 59 58 60 60 58 52 50 54 56 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 20 22 24 26 27 29 29 28 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -47 -45 -55 -52 -37 -28 -15 -8 0 -13 -10 -11 200 MB DIV -14 -4 -20 -26 -3 -40 -33 -5 0 -13 3 43 56 700-850 TADV 13 10 7 10 9 4 4 0 -1 -3 -6 -1 4 LAND (KM) 605 679 754 793 834 846 771 711 655 589 644 654 634 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.8 26.5 26.8 27.1 26.9 25.8 24.9 24.4 24.6 25.6 26.3 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 69.1 69.4 69.7 69.1 68.5 67.2 66.3 65.8 66.0 67.7 70.8 72.8 73.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 5 6 6 6 6 4 4 11 13 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 41 40 42 44 48 42 37 36 52 38 49 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -5. -2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -6. -8. -12. -16. -17. -18. -17. -12. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 25.1 69.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.54 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.20 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 544.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.41 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 9.4% 8.5% 7.5% 5.7% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.7% 3.3% 2.8% 1.9% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/11/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 86 84 84 84 82 78 74 73 72 73 78 79 18HR AGO 90 89 87 87 87 85 81 77 76 75 76 81 82 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 86 84 80 76 75 74 75 80 81 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 80 78 74 70 69 68 69 74 75 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 69 65 61 60 59 60 65 66 IN 6HR 90 86 77 71 68 68 64 60 59 58 59 64 65 IN 12HR 90 86 84 75 69 65 61 57 56 55 56 61 62