* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/11/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 81 80 78 76 74 72 74 74 78 83 85 V (KT) LAND 90 84 81 80 78 76 74 72 74 74 78 83 85 V (KT) LGEM 90 84 80 78 77 75 77 78 76 74 74 77 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 20 11 15 14 17 13 20 15 13 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 4 2 1 3 6 2 3 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 13 23 32 27 350 351 352 356 344 344 320 300 285 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 160 159 159 158 155 154 156 160 160 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 137 136 134 135 135 133 133 138 142 140 137 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.2 -50.5 -50.1 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 12 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 61 60 63 62 60 56 56 56 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 19 19 20 21 22 27 27 27 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -67 -57 -48 -60 -46 -35 -26 -12 2 -11 -5 -17 200 MB DIV -21 -16 -13 -33 -14 -15 -54 -30 -11 18 17 35 68 700-850 TADV 19 7 4 4 9 8 3 3 0 1 -1 5 11 LAND (KM) 512 592 679 725 772 786 738 684 601 523 524 566 580 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.0 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.5 24.2 24.5 25.0 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.9 69.4 69.2 69.0 68.2 67.3 66.9 67.2 68.4 70.5 72.0 72.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 6 4 3 4 4 4 4 8 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 53 48 42 43 44 50 53 46 48 53 44 43 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -6. -5. -3. -0. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 6. 6. 6. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -16. -16. -12. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 24.1 68.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.38 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.18 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.05 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 558.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.39 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 6.4% 6.2% 5.2% 4.5% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/11/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 84 81 80 78 76 74 72 74 74 78 83 85 18HR AGO 90 89 86 85 83 81 79 77 79 79 83 88 90 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 83 81 79 77 79 79 83 88 90 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 76 74 72 74 74 78 83 85 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 69 67 65 67 67 71 76 78 IN 6HR 90 84 75 69 66 63 61 59 61 61 65 70 72 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT