* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 92 86 84 76 73 72 70 70 72 77 81 V (KT) LAND 105 99 92 86 84 76 73 72 70 70 72 77 81 V (KT) LGEM 105 99 94 89 85 80 77 77 76 74 71 71 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 28 29 25 18 17 17 19 13 20 15 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 -3 3 7 6 4 8 7 8 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 7 3 18 24 15 355 7 347 355 345 353 326 315 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 157 156 159 158 157 157 154 154 155 158 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 142 139 138 132 133 134 131 133 135 138 137 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 50 54 54 55 56 58 62 59 60 59 60 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 19 20 19 21 25 26 27 27 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -47 -71 -74 -64 -67 -50 -41 -16 0 21 6 0 200 MB DIV -35 -42 -51 -30 -30 -44 -12 -23 -15 15 29 18 44 700-850 TADV 14 18 11 9 13 11 9 7 3 4 0 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 422 477 529 602 682 758 758 721 644 564 513 534 610 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.3 24.2 25.0 25.8 26.5 26.4 25.9 25.1 24.5 24.3 24.6 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 66.4 67.3 68.2 68.6 69.1 69.2 68.5 67.8 67.6 68.1 69.4 70.6 71.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 10 9 6 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 64 47 55 53 48 47 53 56 54 55 53 47 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -4. -10. -18. -24. -30. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -17. -18. -17. -13. -9. -6. -2. 2. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -21. -29. -32. -33. -35. -35. -33. -28. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 22.3 66.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 779.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.18 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/10/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 99 92 86 84 76 73 72 70 70 72 77 81 18HR AGO 105 104 97 91 89 81 78 77 75 75 77 82 86 12HR AGO 105 102 101 95 93 85 82 81 79 79 81 86 90 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 93 85 82 81 79 79 81 86 90 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 78 75 74 72 72 74 79 83 IN 6HR 105 99 90 84 81 75 72 71 69 69 71 76 80 IN 12HR 105 99 92 83 77 73 70 69 67 67 69 74 78