* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/10/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 107 102 97 86 80 74 75 75 81 85 85 V (KT) LAND 115 111 107 102 97 86 80 74 75 75 81 85 85 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 104 100 97 91 85 81 79 77 76 77 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 14 22 25 25 22 22 19 19 18 17 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 4 -1 0 5 3 2 4 1 4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 315 335 360 12 35 25 8 12 332 341 334 332 312 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 157 157 157 157 157 155 154 154 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 147 145 143 136 133 133 133 132 133 133 136 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.2 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 54 57 61 62 63 61 60 57 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 21 21 21 20 22 24 27 29 33 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -36 -55 -54 -63 -67 -55 -41 -31 -18 -13 7 -6 200 MB DIV 0 4 -6 -35 -47 -26 -40 -8 -18 -9 29 34 36 700-850 TADV 14 16 12 15 7 11 13 7 4 2 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 293 314 388 452 492 604 704 758 773 732 624 555 555 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.9 23.8 25.1 26.0 26.4 26.3 25.8 24.9 24.5 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 65.1 66.2 67.1 68.1 69.2 69.1 68.5 67.5 67.2 67.6 68.4 69.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 6 3 4 3 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 51 69 51 55 49 49 52 55 50 54 56 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -13. -23. -31. -38. -43. -46. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -5. -10. -14. -19. -19. -15. -10. -6. -1. 3. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. 1. 2. 6. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -29. -35. -41. -40. -40. -34. -30. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 20.4 64.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.43 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.06 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 793.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.16 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 8.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 2.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/10/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 111 107 102 97 86 80 74 75 75 81 85 85 18HR AGO 115 114 110 105 100 89 83 77 78 78 84 88 88 12HR AGO 115 112 111 106 101 90 84 78 79 79 85 89 89 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 100 89 83 77 78 78 84 88 88 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 85 79 73 74 74 80 84 84 IN 6HR 115 111 102 96 93 86 80 74 75 75 81 85 85 IN 12HR 115 111 107 98 92 88 82 76 77 77 83 87 87