* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/09/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 121 118 113 107 97 86 78 74 74 77 78 81 V (KT) LAND 125 121 118 113 107 97 86 78 74 74 77 78 81 V (KT) LGEM 125 119 113 108 104 99 93 86 80 77 76 75 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 21 23 24 22 21 16 17 16 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 2 3 3 2 7 4 1 3 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 221 249 302 342 1 28 27 4 360 338 332 327 322 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 156 157 157 158 157 157 157 153 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 149 149 146 143 137 134 132 133 132 127 130 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 53 52 50 50 53 55 60 63 65 64 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 18 17 18 18 18 19 20 22 25 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -15 -34 -44 -65 -67 -77 -64 -56 -55 -38 -48 -37 200 MB DIV 29 -21 -8 -3 -19 -40 -50 -26 1 -19 -3 14 23 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 2 2 6 14 11 5 4 3 3 0 LAND (KM) 404 318 276 298 377 470 574 682 745 758 738 729 754 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.5 20.2 21.1 21.9 23.5 24.8 25.8 26.3 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 61.9 63.0 64.0 65.1 66.2 67.9 69.0 69.1 68.6 68.0 67.3 67.0 66.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 12 10 6 4 3 3 3 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 61 57 50 51 72 57 52 49 52 54 50 47 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -8. -17. -28. -38. -46. -52. -56. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -13. -19. -18. -14. -10. -4. 1. 6. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -18. -28. -39. -47. -51. -51. -48. -47. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 18.8 61.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 928.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.03 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 3.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/09/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 121 118 113 107 97 86 78 74 74 77 78 81 18HR AGO 125 124 121 116 110 100 89 81 77 77 80 81 84 12HR AGO 125 122 121 116 110 100 89 81 77 77 80 81 84 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 109 99 88 80 76 76 79 80 83 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 96 85 77 73 73 76 77 80 IN 6HR 125 121 112 106 103 97 86 78 74 74 77 78 81 IN 12HR 125 121 118 109 103 99 88 80 76 76 79 80 83