* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/09/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 119 114 110 106 93 85 78 72 75 78 79 81 V (KT) LAND 125 119 114 110 106 93 85 78 72 75 78 79 81 V (KT) LGEM 125 118 111 106 102 96 90 84 79 74 71 68 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 17 18 22 28 23 18 20 20 15 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 0 0 2 -1 9 8 9 8 9 5 4 SHEAR DIR 256 250 283 319 355 15 34 3 2 4 5 12 18 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 156 156 155 156 157 157 159 160 158 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 150 150 147 143 141 136 133 135 136 131 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.0 -50.3 -50.0 -50.3 -49.8 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 54 60 55 55 53 55 57 62 66 68 67 65 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 22 22 21 23 23 23 27 29 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR -12 1 -5 -26 -45 -54 -68 -60 -52 -33 -34 -10 -21 200 MB DIV 33 37 -26 -2 -6 -46 -38 -4 -39 -17 26 16 21 700-850 TADV 16 7 4 4 6 9 9 16 14 7 15 11 3 LAND (KM) 529 422 334 282 290 431 508 630 730 788 821 840 849 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.1 20.9 22.4 24.0 25.3 26.2 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.7 62.7 63.8 64.9 66.7 68.2 68.9 68.8 68.1 67.0 66.3 66.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 11 9 6 3 4 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 52 61 58 52 49 65 58 51 51 51 47 44 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -7. -16. -28. -37. -45. -51. -55. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -21. -22. -17. -12. -7. -1. 4. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -2. -3. -4. 0. 2. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -19. -32. -40. -47. -53. -50. -47. -46. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.9 60.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.73 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 870.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.09 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/09/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 119 114 110 106 93 85 78 72 75 78 79 81 18HR AGO 125 124 119 115 111 98 90 83 77 80 83 84 86 12HR AGO 125 122 121 117 113 100 92 85 79 82 85 86 88 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 111 98 90 83 77 80 83 84 86 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 93 85 78 72 75 78 79 81 IN 6HR 125 119 110 104 101 94 86 79 73 76 79 80 82 IN 12HR 125 119 114 105 99 95 87 80 74 77 80 81 83