* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/09/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 124 119 114 111 100 90 83 77 76 79 85 84 V (KT) LAND 130 124 119 114 111 100 90 83 77 76 79 85 84 V (KT) LGEM 130 124 117 110 105 98 93 88 82 77 76 74 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 13 12 11 21 27 21 17 17 17 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 7 6 4 5 1 6 5 4 5 8 0 SHEAR DIR 250 250 248 264 314 1 26 31 7 5 17 359 346 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 156 156 156 155 155 158 159 160 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 149 149 149 147 142 137 136 134 136 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 59 55 53 56 57 59 65 65 61 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 24 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -7 -4 -5 -26 -58 -71 -77 -75 -53 -45 -31 -50 200 MB DIV 43 48 27 7 -5 -7 -33 -42 -26 6 16 16 1 700-850 TADV 8 16 13 10 12 12 12 14 13 12 11 10 8 LAND (KM) 636 520 411 317 260 334 450 558 687 771 833 915 997 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.1 19.8 21.5 23.2 24.6 25.8 26.5 26.9 27.4 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 59.8 60.8 61.8 62.8 63.8 65.8 67.7 68.7 68.8 68.4 67.6 66.7 65.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 10 7 5 4 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 51 49 58 62 59 66 56 55 51 48 43 36 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -9. -18. -30. -40. -49. -55. -59. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -16. -10. -5. 1. 7. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -1. 2. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -19. -30. -40. -47. -53. -54. -51. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 17.2 59.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 130.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 778.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.18 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/09/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 124 119 114 111 100 90 83 77 76 79 85 84 18HR AGO 130 129 124 119 116 105 95 88 82 81 84 90 89 12HR AGO 130 127 126 121 118 107 97 90 84 83 86 92 91 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 117 106 96 89 83 82 85 91 90 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 100 90 83 77 76 79 85 84 IN 6HR 130 124 115 109 106 99 89 82 76 75 78 84 83 IN 12HR 130 124 119 110 104 100 90 83 77 76 79 85 84