* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/09/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 125 121 117 115 111 98 88 85 81 83 84 86 V (KT) LAND 130 125 121 117 115 111 98 88 85 81 83 84 86 V (KT) LGEM 130 125 119 113 108 102 98 95 90 84 79 76 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 11 8 12 25 21 18 18 19 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 8 4 7 -2 8 3 7 7 6 4 SHEAR DIR 260 247 241 241 250 360 9 35 15 8 10 359 349 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 156 156 156 156 156 157 160 160 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 151 152 149 149 149 144 140 136 137 137 136 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -51.1 -51.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 57 56 53 55 58 61 63 66 66 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 22 22 23 20 21 24 24 27 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -4 0 0 -36 -48 -55 -46 -39 -42 -29 -28 200 MB DIV 61 49 44 20 -6 -18 -19 -35 -37 -25 0 3 8 700-850 TADV 2 4 6 5 1 11 11 6 11 14 14 13 9 LAND (KM) 697 641 532 421 325 265 440 522 641 752 863 946 1007 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.0 20.6 22.5 24.1 25.4 26.4 27.2 27.7 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 58.8 59.7 60.7 61.7 62.7 64.8 66.7 68.1 68.9 68.8 67.7 66.7 65.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 12 13 12 9 6 5 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 67 51 48 57 62 47 62 58 51 49 40 34 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -1. -2. -8. -17. -29. -39. -48. -54. -58. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -11. -12. -10. -12. -10. -7. -2. 3. 7. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -4. -4. -1. -1. 2. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -15. -19. -32. -42. -45. -49. -47. -46. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 16.7 58.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 57.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 130.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 814.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.14 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 3.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/09/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 125 121 117 115 111 98 88 85 81 83 84 86 18HR AGO 130 129 125 121 119 115 102 92 89 85 87 88 90 12HR AGO 130 127 126 122 120 116 103 93 90 86 88 89 91 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 118 114 101 91 88 84 86 87 89 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 107 94 84 81 77 79 80 82 IN 6HR 130 125 116 110 107 103 90 80 77 73 75 76 78 IN 12HR 130 125 121 112 106 102 89 79 76 72 74 75 77