* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 131 126 119 113 107 100 91 81 75 72 73 77 V (KT) LAND 130 131 126 119 113 107 100 91 81 75 72 73 77 V (KT) LGEM 130 133 129 122 115 104 97 93 87 78 72 69 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 20 18 16 8 23 32 28 21 19 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 4 6 7 0 7 8 12 3 5 SHEAR DIR 262 269 269 257 249 299 2 15 28 9 18 17 30 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 159 157 157 156 156 156 157 159 159 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 159 156 152 151 149 148 145 141 138 135 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -52.6 -52.6 -51.2 -51.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.0 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 57 57 54 53 53 57 62 65 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 19 19 20 19 19 18 19 19 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 3 3 0 5 4 3 -35 -57 -64 -55 -56 -38 -42 200 MB DIV 42 62 57 37 31 1 -13 -28 -28 -25 1 25 27 700-850 TADV 4 0 -9 1 6 6 16 7 8 17 20 18 9 LAND (KM) 770 719 693 621 502 294 255 416 529 674 773 865 942 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.2 17.6 19.0 20.6 22.3 24.2 25.7 26.6 27.4 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.6 58.9 60.0 61.0 63.0 65.0 66.8 68.2 68.9 68.9 68.6 68.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 10 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 60 61 67 53 49 64 50 62 58 50 47 41 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -16. -27. -37. -45. -52. -57. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -18. -17. -16. -15. -12. -7. -1. 5. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -4. -11. -17. -23. -30. -39. -49. -55. -58. -57. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 16.1 56.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.68 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 130.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 822.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.13 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 30.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.0% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.0% 10.5% 7.6% 2.7% 1.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 12.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.6% 10.3% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/08/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 131 126 119 113 107 100 91 81 75 72 73 77 18HR AGO 130 129 124 117 111 105 98 89 79 73 70 71 75 12HR AGO 130 127 126 119 113 107 100 91 81 75 72 73 77 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 114 108 101 92 82 76 73 74 78 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 105 98 89 79 73 70 71 75 IN 6HR 130 131 122 116 113 109 102 93 83 77 74 75 79 IN 12HR 130 131 126 117 111 107 100 91 81 75 72 73 77