* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 104 101 98 95 91 84 77 73 71 71 76 V (KT) LAND 105 105 104 101 98 95 91 84 77 73 71 71 76 V (KT) LGEM 105 105 104 101 98 92 87 82 76 71 66 63 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 19 17 13 16 25 29 23 28 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 6 2 10 3 7 4 8 0 6 6 SHEAR DIR 265 272 272 267 266 258 319 4 34 22 2 21 30 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 161 159 157 155 154 154 156 158 160 159 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 158 158 154 152 148 146 145 143 139 136 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -52.8 -52.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -50.5 -50.0 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 55 57 56 55 52 54 59 62 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 18 17 19 19 19 17 17 17 18 22 850 MB ENV VOR 4 2 0 0 0 0 -16 -55 -62 -73 -65 -39 -46 200 MB DIV 47 47 61 55 48 35 -11 -9 -36 -23 -31 9 24 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 -4 5 0 11 13 9 14 21 19 19 LAND (KM) 886 807 748 733 665 464 346 381 526 638 777 852 894 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.6 20.1 21.8 23.6 25.2 26.5 27.1 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 56.0 57.3 58.4 59.5 61.3 63.0 65.0 67.0 68.1 68.1 67.7 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 11 12 13 11 8 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 60 66 62 67 57 50 54 58 50 57 44 37 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -4. -11. -17. -23. -28. -31. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -12. -11. -10. -7. -4. -0. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -21. -28. -32. -34. -34. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.9 54.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.49 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.66 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.20 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 581.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.37 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 17.6% 14.0% 10.3% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 4.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.4% 2.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 8.1% 6.2% 3.9% 2.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/08/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 105 104 101 98 95 91 84 77 73 71 71 76 18HR AGO 105 104 103 100 97 94 90 83 76 72 70 70 75 12HR AGO 105 102 101 98 95 92 88 81 74 70 68 68 73 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 92 89 85 78 71 67 65 65 70 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 83 79 72 65 61 59 59 64 IN 6HR 105 105 96 90 87 84 80 73 66 62 60 60 65 IN 12HR 105 105 104 95 89 85 81 74 67 63 61 61 66