* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 104 103 101 93 88 82 75 67 63 64 67 V (KT) LAND 100 104 104 103 101 93 88 82 75 67 63 64 67 V (KT) LGEM 100 105 107 106 104 97 90 83 76 68 63 62 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 15 18 19 20 16 17 23 30 32 26 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 5 5 10 6 6 2 5 3 3 SHEAR DIR 203 247 279 289 293 284 286 332 9 35 28 4 1 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 157 160 161 157 155 156 156 155 158 161 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 157 159 159 152 148 149 146 143 142 139 137 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 9 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 60 57 57 56 57 55 56 57 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 17 17 14 16 16 15 13 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 1 4 4 3 -1 -6 -8 -22 -54 -70 -87 -69 -41 200 MB DIV 39 54 52 54 72 27 13 1 0 -39 -36 -9 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 0 0 1 10 12 15 9 12 21 9 LAND (KM) 1098 1002 886 803 743 646 443 287 326 489 641 790 908 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.2 18.3 19.7 21.4 23.2 25.2 26.7 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 51.6 53.1 54.7 56.0 57.4 59.7 61.5 63.4 65.5 67.0 68.0 68.5 68.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 11 11 12 12 11 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 53 60 66 62 56 50 59 59 52 58 45 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. -1. -7. -12. -17. -22. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. -5. -1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 3. 1. -7. -12. -18. -25. -33. -37. -36. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 15.3 51.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 11.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.53 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.38 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.25 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.40 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 534.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.41 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.5% 36.9% 26.3% 14.8% 12.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.6% 24.6% 17.6% 9.3% 7.3% 6.4% 2.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 34.3% 28.3% 27.6% 16.3% 6.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 28.1% 30.0% 23.8% 13.5% 8.6% 6.6% 0.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/07/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 104 104 103 101 93 88 82 75 67 63 64 67 18HR AGO 100 99 99 98 96 88 83 77 70 62 58 59 62 12HR AGO 100 97 96 95 93 85 80 74 67 59 55 56 59 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 80 75 69 62 54 50 51 54 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 73 68 62 55 47 43 44 47 IN 6HR 100 104 95 89 86 82 77 71 64 56 52 53 56 IN 12HR 100 104 104 95 89 85 80 74 67 59 55 56 59