* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 87 88 89 85 84 78 75 65 62 58 60 V (KT) LAND 80 84 87 88 89 85 84 78 75 65 62 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 86 88 87 86 83 79 73 65 59 55 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 14 16 12 17 19 27 32 30 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 2 9 8 11 14 4 10 6 6 SHEAR DIR 238 217 238 274 284 282 273 304 351 21 33 18 26 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 157 160 159 157 156 156 156 157 158 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 153 154 159 159 153 150 149 148 145 144 140 143 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -52.5 -52.6 -51.5 -51.6 -50.8 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 11 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 60 62 57 58 56 53 56 58 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 17 16 17 15 17 16 17 13 13 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 7 9 6 1 1 -4 -35 -66 -80 -72 -73 200 MB DIV 31 41 49 59 54 28 18 8 8 -26 -29 -23 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 -2 -3 -6 -4 5 4 14 14 13 16 13 LAND (KM) 1110 1082 1005 884 783 708 586 384 287 388 509 656 824 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.6 18.9 20.4 22.0 23.8 25.5 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 49.8 51.4 53.0 54.6 56.1 58.5 60.2 62.1 64.1 66.0 67.7 68.7 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 13 10 10 12 12 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 48 54 59 68 68 50 54 52 66 58 52 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -2. -8. -9. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 5. 4. -2. -5. -15. -18. -22. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.8 49.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.69 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.59 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.42 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 401.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.54 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.6% 42.0% 28.7% 19.6% 15.1% 15.4% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 21.5% 35.7% 25.7% 16.1% 12.0% 12.2% 5.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 17.7% 31.9% 26.4% 14.6% 5.9% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 19.6% 36.5% 26.9% 16.8% 11.0% 10.4% 7.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 87 88 89 85 84 78 75 65 62 58 60 18HR AGO 80 79 82 83 84 80 79 73 70 60 57 53 55 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 78 74 73 67 64 54 51 47 49 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 71 67 66 60 57 47 44 40 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 62 61 55 52 42 39 35 37 IN 12HR 80 84 87 78 72 68 67 61 58 48 45 41 43