* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 88 89 89 89 85 82 78 72 66 62 63 V (KT) LAND 80 84 88 89 89 89 85 82 78 72 66 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 80 85 88 90 91 89 87 82 76 69 62 58 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 12 17 14 18 19 23 29 29 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 1 7 5 11 6 7 5 9 6 SHEAR DIR 252 254 218 250 281 299 270 282 321 3 31 29 4 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 151 152 156 161 157 154 154 154 155 157 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 152 153 152 156 159 152 147 146 144 143 141 145 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -52.8 -52.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 61 62 60 60 57 58 52 57 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 17 17 16 17 17 18 19 18 16 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -5 -1 8 8 6 1 -3 -17 -54 -62 -67 -60 200 MB DIV 23 46 47 45 55 62 38 26 7 9 -31 -18 -19 700-850 TADV 4 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 1 11 13 18 14 22 37 LAND (KM) 1160 1114 1087 1001 887 745 675 475 346 373 494 603 806 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.4 17.3 18.6 20.1 21.7 23.2 24.9 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.9 51.6 53.1 54.6 57.2 59.4 61.2 63.0 64.9 66.9 68.2 68.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 11 12 12 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 52 51 59 62 63 56 55 56 51 60 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. -0. 1. -1. -0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 9. 9. 5. 2. -2. -8. -14. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.6 48.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.65 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.63 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.40 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 402.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.54 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.9% 45.1% 33.5% 22.9% 16.9% 19.2% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 27.3% 42.8% 32.8% 20.9% 15.7% 17.6% 6.9% 1.6% Bayesian: 24.6% 51.4% 47.9% 26.2% 12.0% 3.6% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 25.6% 46.4% 38.1% 23.3% 14.9% 13.4% 8.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/07/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 88 89 89 89 85 82 78 72 66 62 63 18HR AGO 80 79 83 84 84 84 80 77 73 67 61 57 58 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 77 77 73 70 66 60 54 50 51 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 70 66 63 59 53 47 43 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 65 61 58 54 48 42 38 39 IN 12HR 80 84 88 79 73 69 65 62 58 52 46 42 43