* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/06/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 75 78 80 82 80 76 70 67 66 63 62 V (KT) LAND 65 71 75 78 80 82 80 76 70 67 66 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 77 80 82 84 85 83 76 70 64 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 11 9 17 17 22 22 19 17 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 6 8 2 7 5 9 SHEAR DIR 256 254 246 241 238 264 266 243 240 271 353 20 25 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 147 149 150 155 159 158 153 152 154 154 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 149 150 151 153 155 150 144 142 144 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 65 62 64 61 60 60 59 55 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 18 17 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 1 8 6 18 16 11 4 -10 -30 -56 -69 200 MB DIV 24 45 64 48 46 53 63 50 31 0 -20 -37 -21 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 -1 3 2 7 19 12 13 11 11 LAND (KM) 1267 1198 1149 1104 1070 928 779 766 664 540 487 551 701 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.5 16.2 17.1 18.3 19.8 21.4 23.1 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 45.1 46.6 48.1 49.6 51.1 53.9 56.4 58.1 59.4 60.8 62.4 64.0 65.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 34 26 28 43 52 65 65 65 47 42 65 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 15. 11. 5. 2. 1. -2. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.7 45.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 18.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.75 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.22 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 8.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.50 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 291.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.65 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 11.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.6% 55.4% 48.4% 40.8% 30.9% 37.5% 27.5% 17.7% Logistic: 40.5% 55.5% 43.7% 27.7% 21.8% 29.5% 19.3% 6.4% Bayesian: 37.9% 58.2% 51.6% 23.3% 11.0% 3.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 37.0% 56.3% 47.9% 30.6% 21.3% 23.3% 15.7% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/06/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 71 75 78 80 82 80 76 70 67 66 63 62 18HR AGO 65 64 68 71 73 75 73 69 63 60 59 56 55 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 66 68 66 62 56 53 52 49 48 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 59 57 53 47 44 43 40 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT