* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 67 70 72 76 74 70 69 66 64 65 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 67 70 72 76 74 70 69 66 64 65 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 63 67 70 76 79 81 78 71 64 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 11 11 11 14 19 21 25 19 25 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -3 -1 1 0 4 10 3 12 4 11 SHEAR DIR 311 279 264 259 258 244 254 252 248 253 323 17 18 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 149 150 151 158 160 156 152 152 154 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 152 151 152 151 156 155 148 143 142 143 143 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -52.8 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 66 65 65 66 62 62 59 57 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 15 17 17 20 20 20 21 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 5 3 7 18 17 14 14 1 -22 -34 -58 200 MB DIV 22 31 53 55 47 57 44 62 51 29 0 -6 -15 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 3 0 6 6 4 3 4 LAND (KM) 1284 1217 1151 1100 1065 1022 816 739 745 603 507 507 604 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.5 16.4 17.5 18.9 20.4 22.1 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 43.8 45.2 46.7 48.2 49.7 52.5 55.2 57.3 58.7 60.0 61.4 63.0 64.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 39 34 27 28 56 65 63 66 60 42 48 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 24.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 4. 2. -0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 21. 19. 15. 14. 11. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.9 43.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 13.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.76 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.61 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 212.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 6.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.5% 51.9% 41.1% 31.2% 17.8% 41.1% 34.6% 18.8% Logistic: 35.8% 53.7% 42.4% 29.6% 23.9% 30.3% 22.8% 10.9% Bayesian: 15.9% 59.3% 39.9% 9.5% 3.6% 7.8% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 24.1% 54.9% 41.1% 23.5% 15.1% 26.4% 19.5% 9.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/06/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 64 67 70 72 76 74 70 69 66 64 65 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 64 66 70 68 64 63 60 58 59 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 57 59 63 61 57 56 53 51 52 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 50 54 52 48 47 44 42 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT