* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/06/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 57 59 67 73 74 73 75 75 74 74 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 57 59 67 73 74 73 75 75 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 55 59 67 74 77 78 76 70 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 11 11 10 10 17 21 18 13 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 0 4 9 3 8 3 SHEAR DIR 322 294 274 254 262 230 235 258 247 246 284 357 17 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 149 149 152 154 159 158 153 150 152 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 151 152 151 154 153 154 151 145 140 141 143 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -51.5 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 66 67 64 64 61 60 58 55 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 19 17 22 23 24 24 27 27 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 10 17 19 17 11 20 28 28 23 24 2 -10 -21 200 MB DIV 43 42 49 56 62 58 66 67 62 86 32 16 -10 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 0 -3 -3 2 5 4 15 7 14 8 LAND (KM) 1352 1285 1228 1156 1100 1031 920 799 800 696 584 532 587 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.5 15.2 16.1 17.2 18.4 19.9 21.5 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.6 44.9 46.4 47.9 51.0 53.8 56.0 57.6 59.1 60.4 61.9 63.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 15 13 10 9 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 27 36 36 28 38 49 59 62 65 48 41 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 30.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 5. 7. 7. 7. 10. 10. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 14. 22. 28. 29. 28. 30. 30. 29. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.4 42.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.81 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.46 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 157.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 43.2% 27.7% 15.2% 9.7% 23.2% 26.9% 19.6% Logistic: 25.0% 57.0% 43.1% 32.9% 23.5% 27.9% 21.6% 13.1% Bayesian: 10.9% 50.8% 32.1% 8.1% 2.5% 6.4% 1.9% 0.5% Consensus: 15.1% 50.3% 34.3% 18.7% 11.9% 19.2% 16.8% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/06/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 57 59 67 73 74 73 75 75 74 74 18HR AGO 45 44 49 52 54 62 68 69 68 70 70 69 69 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 54 60 61 60 62 62 61 61 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 45 51 52 51 53 53 52 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT