* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 58 62 67 72 77 79 78 79 78 74 V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 58 62 67 72 77 79 78 79 78 74 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 61 68 73 78 81 81 77 72 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 6 6 11 12 13 10 14 17 18 26 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 1 -1 -1 -2 1 3 7 5 5 -6 SHEAR DIR 303 292 294 242 251 251 242 241 249 265 310 14 26 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 148 147 147 149 152 156 159 155 152 152 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 155 151 148 148 150 152 153 153 148 144 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -52.9 -52.5 -51.8 -51.5 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 69 68 66 63 66 61 59 55 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 15 18 18 20 22 24 25 25 27 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 15 16 13 12 17 32 31 27 17 2 -12 200 MB DIV 30 56 49 53 62 46 61 66 40 42 52 7 -27 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -2 0 -1 -6 -4 1 3 12 5 4 7 LAND (KM) 1448 1360 1286 1230 1175 1084 1012 837 794 730 535 459 534 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.8 16.8 17.9 19.2 20.8 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.5 43.9 45.3 46.6 49.5 52.7 55.2 57.0 58.8 60.7 62.2 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 15 14 11 10 10 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 30 38 34 25 53 55 60 64 57 42 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 29.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 10. 12. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 13. 17. 22. 27. 32. 34. 33. 34. 33. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.4 41.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.84 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 146.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 41.0% 23.8% 10.7% 9.1% 19.3% 23.6% 22.7% Logistic: 15.0% 43.4% 28.0% 15.6% 13.5% 29.0% 27.0% 22.9% Bayesian: 13.0% 54.8% 33.0% 7.0% 1.9% 17.8% 4.0% 1.1% Consensus: 12.3% 46.4% 28.3% 11.1% 8.2% 22.0% 18.2% 15.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/06/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 53 58 62 67 72 77 79 78 79 78 74 18HR AGO 45 44 47 52 56 61 66 71 73 72 73 72 68 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 50 55 60 65 67 66 67 66 62 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 44 49 54 56 55 56 55 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT