* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/05/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 50 59 69 75 81 81 82 80 79 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 50 59 69 75 81 81 82 80 79 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 47 50 59 69 79 85 87 82 75 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 6 6 7 6 9 9 12 16 21 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 1 0 -2 -4 -5 -5 0 5 5 4 5 SHEAR DIR 351 304 279 280 278 246 279 267 250 241 255 260 337 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 147 146 147 151 152 154 157 153 150 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 153 152 151 149 149 150 151 152 153 145 140 143 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.5 -54.0 -54.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 70 68 68 67 65 65 61 61 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 17 21 22 25 26 27 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 13 11 17 11 14 24 21 34 30 15 -16 200 MB DIV 53 54 57 60 22 33 30 71 89 111 71 35 15 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -3 -1 0 1 -3 0 5 7 18 22 11 LAND (KM) 1647 1590 1524 1440 1356 1160 1015 988 917 901 812 730 718 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.5 13.8 13.9 13.8 14.4 15.6 17.3 18.6 20.1 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 39.6 40.8 42.3 43.9 47.0 49.7 52.1 54.1 56.0 58.0 59.0 60.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 15 16 15 12 12 12 12 10 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 24 23 32 33 29 54 40 58 60 51 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 26.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 8. 12. 12. 13. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 24. 34. 40. 46. 46. 47. 45. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.1 38.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/05/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.89 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.17 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.32 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.8 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 32.9% 17.8% 9.7% 8.1% 15.3% 19.6% 40.9% Logistic: 11.8% 42.2% 24.8% 11.8% 7.4% 33.2% 31.1% 32.6% Bayesian: 10.8% 50.1% 22.2% 4.6% 1.5% 14.6% 4.9% 4.5% Consensus: 10.1% 41.7% 21.6% 8.7% 5.7% 21.0% 18.5% 26.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/05/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/05/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 47 50 59 69 75 81 81 82 80 79 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 45 54 64 70 76 76 77 75 74 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 47 57 63 69 69 70 68 67 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 37 47 53 59 59 60 58 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT