* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 56 50 51 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 56 50 51 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 60 56 50 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 59 66 80 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 14 16 6 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 224 225 235 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 22.5 20.4 15.3 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 98 89 78 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 93 85 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.9 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 38 41 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 25 23 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 93 106 129 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 105 96 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 58 -36 -41 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 922 849 1036 1361 1268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.7 41.7 44.6 48.4 52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.1 45.1 40.1 34.5 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 45 48 50 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 42 CX,CY: 34/ 24 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -23. -38. -54. -65. -77. -88. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -19. -20. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -10. -9. -18. -31. -46. -61. -75. -89.-103.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 38.7 50.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 71.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.01 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 318.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/25/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 56 50 51 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 55 49 50 41 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 50 51 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT