* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 57 50 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 57 50 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 62 60 54 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 54 64 73 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 4 9 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 220 220 222 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.6 21.6 19.4 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 94 86 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 126 89 82 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 38 40 45 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 28 26 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 109 118 136 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 89 104 100 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -78 -40 -59 -117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1089 871 767 912 1219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.4 39.0 41.6 45.1 48.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.5 51.1 46.6 41.5 36.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 41 43 47 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 38 CX,CY: 31/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -21. -33. -45. -54. -62. -71. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. -18. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. -3. -10. -20. -33. -48. -61. -72. -85. -96.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.4 55.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 60.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.11 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 307.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 18.7% 17.6% 0.2% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.3% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/25/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 62 57 50 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 59 54 47 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 51 44 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 43 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT