* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 63 67 75 81 69 47 42 36 30 24 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 63 67 75 81 69 47 42 36 30 24 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 63 67 75 77 59 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 8 12 23 40 58 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 4 2 4 13 20 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 150 143 161 184 187 240 229 237 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 27.6 25.9 20.3 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 163 158 155 139 122 89 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 141 137 140 135 118 84 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 59 57 44 39 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 23 24 26 31 26 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -9 8 8 12 58 86 137 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 67 82 63 88 42 93 86 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 3 1 17 7 32 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1067 1174 1184 1206 1238 1177 883 1046 1371 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 29.2 30.3 31.3 32.2 34.7 39.2 44.7 50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.8 64.8 64.8 64.0 63.1 57.9 49.5 39.9 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 18 33 43 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 29 25 31 23 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -4. -14. -19. -24. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 25. 31. 19. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.1 64.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.68 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.60 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.57 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 247.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 32.7% 16.4% 11.9% 9.1% 10.4% 16.6% Logistic: 5.0% 17.1% 8.1% 3.9% 0.0% 2.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 3.1% 6.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 18.6% 8.5% 5.4% 3.0% 4.3% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/23/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 59 63 67 75 81 69 47 42 36 30 24 18HR AGO 50 49 54 58 62 70 76 64 42 37 31 25 19 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 62 68 56 34 29 23 17 DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 52 58 46 24 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT