* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 44 54 64 75 80 78 58 42 25 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 44 54 64 75 80 78 58 42 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 38 45 53 62 69 66 53 38 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 13 12 10 8 5 14 29 53 81 77 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 5 6 11 14 21 24 SHEAR DIR 138 126 128 148 156 135 212 219 255 241 226 216 227 SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.5 27.3 26.5 22.0 17.3 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 166 167 168 166 164 159 147 133 125 94 78 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 155 153 150 146 144 139 132 123 117 87 74 70 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.1 -49.9 -50.0 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 57 57 58 58 59 55 52 36 31 37 45 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 19 21 23 26 27 27 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 35 33 33 12 -2 1 28 44 97 76 112 70 200 MB DIV 36 21 30 26 23 78 50 65 40 35 2 3 -3 700-850 TADV 6 8 5 1 3 2 2 9 30 -50 -177 -5 -102 LAND (KM) 812 814 843 891 951 1159 1240 1257 1234 993 864 1202 1434 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.5 25.4 26.2 26.9 28.9 31.0 32.8 34.8 38.0 42.5 46.2 49.3 LONG(DEG W) 60.2 61.4 62.6 63.4 64.2 64.5 63.7 60.8 56.1 50.3 43.9 37.1 30.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 10 9 11 13 18 25 31 32 29 27 HEAT CONTENT 50 47 63 56 41 34 34 17 3 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 0. -14. -29. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 24. 34. 45. 50. 48. 28. 12. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.5 60.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.69 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.29 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.68 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.84 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 161.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 18.0% 11.4% 9.5% 7.0% 9.1% 20.2% Logistic: 4.7% 23.4% 12.4% 5.6% 0.0% 6.8% 21.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.0% Consensus: 3.8% 15.3% 8.2% 5.1% 2.3% 5.4% 14.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/22/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 39 44 54 64 75 80 78 58 42 25 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 41 51 61 72 77 75 55 39 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 34 44 54 65 70 68 48 32 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 45 56 61 59 39 23 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT