* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 43 48 56 63 70 75 79 77 60 29 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 43 48 56 63 70 75 79 77 60 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 41 48 55 61 70 77 75 56 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 13 10 11 8 2 12 24 45 63 82 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 11 15 15 SHEAR DIR 162 159 116 99 121 100 127 187 234 246 225 214 217 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.4 27.0 25.2 21.8 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 163 167 168 165 164 160 146 130 113 93 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 152 152 151 144 141 142 134 122 106 86 74 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 60 61 62 59 56 44 32 29 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 17 17 16 16 16 18 20 17 6 850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 33 34 31 0 -4 0 14 44 39 29 47 200 MB DIV 54 34 18 38 32 25 52 42 28 56 53 11 12 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 4 2 -2 1 0 5 -25 -80 -173 -125 LAND (KM) 848 800 786 809 854 1015 1178 1318 1323 1270 1012 1077 1406 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.4 24.2 25.0 25.8 27.5 29.1 30.8 32.6 35.1 38.5 42.4 46.8 LONG(DEG W) 58.9 60.2 61.5 62.5 63.4 64.3 64.5 62.9 59.4 54.2 47.7 40.9 34.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 13 12 10 8 9 14 21 28 32 32 32 HEAT CONTENT 41 53 52 61 60 35 34 40 24 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 7. 1. -10. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 3. 5. 0. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 26. 33. 40. 45. 49. 47. 30. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.5 58.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.75 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.34 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.73 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.28 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.84 2.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 149.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 39.4% 24.9% 12.1% 9.5% 10.4% 21.4% Logistic: 13.0% 49.3% 32.4% 19.0% 0.0% 23.5% 44.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 20.0% 5.7% 0.5% 0.4% 3.0% 9.2% Consensus: 7.8% 36.2% 21.0% 10.5% 3.3% 12.3% 24.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/22/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 43 48 56 63 70 75 79 77 60 29 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 44 52 59 66 71 75 73 56 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 44 51 58 63 67 65 48 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 33 40 47 52 56 54 37 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT