* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 37 46 55 61 68 73 76 61 47 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 34 37 46 55 61 68 73 76 61 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 31 33 38 45 50 57 65 69 59 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 8 9 10 9 2 3 18 48 64 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 -3 0 -2 4 4 10 19 SHEAR DIR 160 132 125 117 100 106 86 115 342 230 227 224 212 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.2 27.8 26.8 22.5 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 153 158 160 166 168 163 162 157 139 129 97 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 145 151 152 156 152 142 139 141 130 122 91 77 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 58 60 61 59 61 63 61 59 58 47 33 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 16 17 16 16 16 20 16 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 37 39 33 31 28 1 -3 0 20 96 90 40 200 MB DIV 0 31 42 22 15 27 43 58 43 58 86 64 64 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 5 4 1 -2 0 0 -7 -73 -171 -180 LAND (KM) 921 847 795 770 783 879 1088 1253 1404 1268 979 847 1274 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.3 24.3 26.2 28.2 29.6 31.0 33.7 37.9 41.6 44.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.2 58.3 59.3 60.5 61.7 64.0 64.5 63.8 61.8 58.0 52.5 45.2 36.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 15 14 12 9 9 16 26 33 34 34 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 49 63 53 51 33 37 31 24 30 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 3. -8. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 5. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 16. 25. 31. 38. 43. 46. 31. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.4 57.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.76 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.42 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.74 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.81 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 144.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 19.0% 11.6% 9.7% 7.6% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 23.5% 11.6% 2.9% 0.0% 6.3% 14.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 14.9% 7.9% 4.2% 2.5% 5.2% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/21/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 34 37 46 55 61 68 73 76 61 47 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 36 45 54 60 67 72 75 60 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 41 50 56 63 68 71 56 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 32 41 47 54 59 62 47 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT