* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 33 40 47 53 57 64 71 74 63 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 31 33 40 47 53 57 64 71 74 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 29 30 34 39 43 47 53 61 64 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 12 13 11 14 10 14 2 3 26 39 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -3 -1 -2 0 -1 1 0 4 4 11 17 SHEAR DIR 178 167 136 131 122 112 97 116 173 237 242 232 226 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.1 27.7 26.7 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 152 157 160 163 168 167 167 165 156 138 127 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 146 149 152 152 152 147 144 145 142 128 119 93 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 6 3 1 700-500 MB RH 57 59 61 62 62 63 59 62 58 54 41 35 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 15 15 16 15 16 18 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 51 41 41 48 38 39 17 7 -8 4 31 46 39 200 MB DIV -9 4 35 47 18 35 23 60 30 64 65 101 37 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 1 2 3 0 0 -1 4 -3 2 4 LAND (KM) 932 824 740 714 723 751 894 1034 1236 1379 1258 1062 920 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.7 23.7 25.0 26.6 28.1 29.6 31.5 34.1 37.2 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 58.3 59.6 60.7 61.8 64.0 65.4 65.5 64.3 61.5 57.4 51.6 44.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 14 14 13 11 9 8 12 18 25 30 32 HEAT CONTENT 28 35 54 81 69 60 47 42 35 26 19 13 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 7. 4. -2. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. 2. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 10. 17. 23. 27. 34. 41. 44. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.0 57.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.34 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.82 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.74 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.81 1.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 137.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 29.3% 16.3% 11.1% 8.9% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 21.1% 10.4% 2.6% 0.0% 1.9% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 17.3% 9.0% 4.6% 3.0% 3.9% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/21/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 30 31 33 40 47 53 57 64 71 74 63 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 40 47 53 57 64 71 74 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 36 43 49 53 60 67 70 59 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 36 42 46 53 60 63 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT