* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 40 43 51 60 69 74 82 88 91 76 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 40 43 51 60 69 74 82 88 91 76 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 38 40 46 56 65 73 81 88 85 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 7 11 10 10 10 10 8 10 23 38 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 -4 -2 -2 0 -4 2 0 6 7 9 SHEAR DIR 168 192 157 134 136 109 100 93 145 206 216 213 227 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.4 28.2 26.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 153 156 160 167 167 167 166 161 144 129 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 144 148 151 153 149 145 145 145 134 120 99 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 9 7 4 2 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 59 59 61 60 58 55 55 43 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 14 15 18 19 20 22 26 30 24 850 MB ENV VOR 60 50 44 44 49 35 37 14 20 12 70 129 173 200 MB DIV 9 0 2 33 45 15 54 39 57 69 81 93 64 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 2 3 2 0 -2 2 0 -6 -42 -22 LAND (KM) 1033 927 830 774 744 753 825 956 1119 1270 1248 1151 857 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.9 22.8 24.5 25.8 27.3 28.9 30.9 33.3 36.3 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.0 57.1 58.3 59.3 60.4 62.6 64.5 65.5 65.4 63.4 59.5 54.2 48.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 12 9 8 10 17 24 28 29 HEAT CONTENT 28 25 35 48 69 63 53 45 39 38 21 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 24. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 5. 0. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 10. 14. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 25. 34. 39. 47. 53. 56. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 56.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.44 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.83 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.72 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 179.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 24.1% 12.3% 10.4% 8.1% 9.9% 23.2% Logistic: 1.3% 14.7% 6.8% 1.3% 0.0% 3.5% 15.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 14.1% 6.7% 3.9% 2.7% 4.5% 12.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/21/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 40 43 51 60 69 74 82 88 91 76 18HR AGO 35 34 35 38 41 49 58 67 72 80 86 89 74 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 45 54 63 68 76 82 85 70 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 36 45 54 59 67 73 76 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT