* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 49 55 64 71 77 82 88 88 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 49 55 64 71 77 82 88 88 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 39 42 47 56 65 76 84 90 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 13 11 9 8 8 7 11 15 24 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 1 2 11 2 SHEAR DIR 201 189 175 177 192 154 181 138 140 137 190 194 221 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 145 148 151 160 165 168 165 165 162 155 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 136 138 142 149 151 150 143 141 139 136 126 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 51 52 54 56 56 59 57 58 55 57 54 51 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 13 13 16 17 19 21 26 29 850 MB ENV VOR 51 53 51 49 40 44 35 29 14 0 19 32 77 200 MB DIV 21 15 23 15 6 31 24 30 25 58 66 75 34 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 1 1 3 2 -1 1 4 4 13 LAND (KM) 1397 1311 1187 1079 978 843 814 876 985 1101 1159 1278 1275 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.4 21.8 23.2 24.7 26.1 27.4 28.8 30.3 31.7 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.1 53.4 54.7 55.9 57.1 59.5 61.8 63.7 65.1 65.6 65.1 62.9 59.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 13 12 10 8 7 9 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 31 52 36 24 28 43 53 59 42 44 33 30 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 20. 29. 36. 42. 47. 53. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 52.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.67 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 198.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/20/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 43 49 55 64 71 77 82 88 88 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 46 52 61 68 74 79 85 85 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 41 47 56 63 69 74 80 80 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 33 39 48 55 61 66 72 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT