* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 43 47 54 60 69 75 80 83 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 43 47 54 60 69 75 80 83 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 38 41 46 54 65 77 86 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 6 6 9 5 2 3 3 5 1 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 4 2 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 205 223 221 209 196 177 229 103 181 98 288 36 300 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 141 142 142 145 151 160 165 170 171 167 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 134 135 135 137 143 151 154 156 151 141 136 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 45 46 47 50 53 58 60 62 62 63 62 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 12 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 59 54 46 49 49 46 41 45 37 37 12 12 -7 200 MB DIV -11 6 20 16 18 4 14 33 15 27 23 42 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -2 -1 2 3 3 1 3 LAND (KM) 1581 1549 1504 1419 1343 1173 942 767 714 799 942 1019 1074 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 20.2 21.1 22.3 23.8 25.5 27.3 28.4 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 47.0 48.3 49.7 50.9 52.2 54.7 57.2 59.7 62.1 64.2 65.8 66.7 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 20 29 32 37 37 24 57 66 62 47 46 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 25. 34. 40. 45. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.2 47.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.81 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.28 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.63 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 68.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 256.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.5% 10.3% 8.6% 6.9% 8.9% 21.0% Logistic: 2.4% 11.9% 4.5% 2.0% 0.0% 1.1% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 9.7% 5.0% 3.5% 2.3% 3.3% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/19/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 39 43 47 54 60 69 75 80 83 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 42 46 53 59 68 74 79 82 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 38 42 49 55 64 70 75 78 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 35 42 48 57 63 68 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT