* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 38 41 45 50 54 61 67 71 74 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 38 41 45 50 54 61 67 71 74 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 37 39 42 47 55 65 76 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 7 6 4 3 3 1 1 2 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 243 250 252 240 256 227 250 259 309 55 115 197 260 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 134 137 139 142 144 148 156 163 169 172 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 128 131 133 135 137 139 146 152 156 155 154 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 47 48 52 55 58 59 59 62 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 9 10 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 66 59 53 54 52 43 42 32 35 33 23 22 2 200 MB DIV 4 13 4 -1 5 6 0 4 12 33 5 30 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 1 2 -1 -2 -6 -5 -2 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 1793 1713 1643 1603 1565 1446 1304 1074 904 791 747 846 915 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.4 18.6 19.2 20.0 21.2 22.4 23.6 24.7 26.1 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 42.8 44.1 45.5 46.8 48.2 50.7 53.4 55.9 58.2 60.6 63.2 65.4 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 18 22 33 23 33 46 26 38 51 61 50 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -10. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 26. 32. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.0 42.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.75 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.43 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.75 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.58 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 76.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 276.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.6% 10.5% 8.7% 7.1% 9.1% 21.7% Logistic: 1.6% 8.5% 3.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.8% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 8.6% 4.6% 3.3% 2.4% 3.3% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/18/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 38 41 45 50 54 61 67 71 74 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 37 40 44 49 53 60 66 70 73 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 33 36 40 45 49 56 62 66 69 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 34 39 43 50 56 60 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT