* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 34 34 38 41 47 51 58 62 68 70 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 34 34 38 41 47 51 58 62 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 32 32 32 34 38 42 48 55 64 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 7 5 2 4 3 4 1 0 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 5 6 5 2 1 -1 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 242 248 258 259 244 237 268 247 282 205 244 182 252 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 133 134 136 140 142 145 151 160 167 169 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 125 127 128 131 134 134 137 144 151 154 151 147 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 49 46 45 44 47 50 55 56 58 61 61 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 67 66 60 58 59 46 46 39 24 34 29 32 11 200 MB DIV -10 4 16 2 4 20 -3 9 -6 33 20 39 10 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -1 -3 0 1 -1 -5 -4 -2 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1842 1759 1685 1620 1566 1519 1374 1199 960 791 734 775 827 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.6 22.8 24.2 25.3 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.7 43.1 44.4 45.8 47.1 49.6 52.1 54.5 57.2 59.8 62.4 64.3 65.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 14 14 12 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 18 19 27 33 32 36 37 30 55 54 57 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 23. 27. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.7 41.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.72 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.44 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.71 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.57 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 64.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.36 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 275.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 15.1% 9.6% 8.1% 6.6% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 6.8% 3.8% 2.9% 2.2% 3.0% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/18/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 34 34 38 41 47 51 58 62 68 70 18HR AGO 35 34 33 34 34 38 41 47 51 58 62 68 70 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 36 39 45 49 56 60 66 68 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 29 32 38 42 49 53 59 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT