* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 41 43 47 49 52 56 61 67 70 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 41 43 47 49 52 56 61 67 70 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 39 40 42 45 49 54 59 66 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 12 11 6 2 2 3 4 1 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -1 4 5 6 4 0 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 272 275 269 265 268 291 279 222 211 212 357 157 155 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.4 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 127 129 131 135 139 142 145 151 160 164 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 121 123 125 129 133 136 139 144 150 150 153 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 51 47 48 54 56 58 59 60 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 61 70 75 69 67 57 58 50 56 53 34 29 22 200 MB DIV -14 -15 -16 0 17 -6 8 16 5 17 14 18 6 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -3 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2110 2021 1935 1825 1721 1573 1505 1367 1224 995 822 765 798 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.8 18.3 19.0 20.2 21.5 22.9 24.1 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.8 41.1 42.4 43.8 46.3 48.9 51.5 54.2 56.8 59.5 61.7 63.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 7 11 20 34 29 39 42 28 48 48 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 12. 16. 21. 27. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.3 38.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.54 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.70 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.48 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 39.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 285.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.2% 10.1% 8.9% 7.0% 8.9% 19.1% Logistic: 1.2% 7.1% 3.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.5% 4.4% 3.2% 2.3% 3.1% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/17/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 40 41 43 47 49 52 56 61 67 70 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 40 42 46 48 51 55 60 66 69 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 39 43 45 48 52 57 63 66 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 37 39 42 46 51 57 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT