* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 37 39 41 46 51 54 59 63 66 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 37 39 41 46 51 54 59 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 36 35 36 38 43 50 57 64 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 19 17 15 10 7 5 4 3 4 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 4 0 -1 -1 0 3 7 4 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 272 276 277 291 281 267 298 3 3 306 299 269 301 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 124 125 126 129 132 137 140 142 145 147 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 118 118 120 121 122 127 131 134 136 138 138 143 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 55 52 53 50 49 52 53 55 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 45 54 60 67 63 61 51 42 42 53 37 200 MB DIV -6 33 22 -6 -11 -13 15 10 10 0 -4 4 9 700-850 TADV 6 9 5 2 -2 -4 -4 -3 0 -1 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1779 1915 2047 2168 2062 1844 1635 1495 1425 1318 1200 1017 878 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.4 18.3 17.8 17.3 17.2 17.6 18.3 19.3 20.6 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 33.8 35.1 36.4 37.8 39.2 41.8 44.3 46.7 49.1 51.5 54.1 56.3 58.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 13 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 14 15 15 11 27 29 36 42 44 31 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 6. 11. 14. 19. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.3 33.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.43 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.86 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.45 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 237.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.3% 9.6% 8.2% 6.0% 8.1% 15.7% Logistic: 0.5% 4.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.4% 3.9% 2.8% 2.0% 2.9% 6.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/16/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 37 37 39 41 46 51 54 59 63 66 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 37 39 41 46 51 54 59 63 66 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 37 39 44 49 52 57 61 64 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 34 39 44 47 52 56 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT