* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122016 09/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 39 40 43 46 48 52 54 57 59 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 39 40 43 46 48 52 54 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 42 41 40 38 39 41 46 50 55 61 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 22 17 13 11 8 7 2 6 8 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 5 3 0 -3 -2 4 4 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 262 269 278 292 292 302 288 288 323 302 296 297 267 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 124 124 125 127 130 135 139 142 144 145 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 118 118 120 122 125 130 134 137 138 138 139 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 69 65 61 60 60 56 56 53 55 60 59 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 36 34 32 38 53 61 60 54 50 50 44 49 49 200 MB DIV -2 -23 -16 15 16 -6 -16 7 1 14 14 17 18 700-850 TADV 5 0 2 0 0 -1 -1 -6 -2 -1 -4 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1571 1710 1848 1988 2129 1969 1768 1569 1439 1353 1192 1067 928 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.0 17.7 17.4 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 31.9 33.2 34.5 35.8 37.2 39.8 42.4 45.1 47.7 50.2 52.6 54.8 56.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 13 12 12 12 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 4 10 15 16 17 23 26 51 47 44 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.8 31.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 TWELVE 09/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.31 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.32 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.83 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.45 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 200.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 14.4% 9.8% 8.3% 0.0% 8.2% 15.8% Logistic: 1.0% 5.7% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.0% 4.2% 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% 7.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 TWELVE 09/16/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 39 39 40 43 46 48 52 54 57 59 18HR AGO 40 39 39 38 38 39 42 45 47 51 53 56 58 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 36 39 42 44 48 50 53 55 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 34 37 39 43 45 48 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT