* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122016 09/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 30 33 35 39 43 47 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 30 33 35 39 43 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 23 23 23 25 27 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 24 28 25 18 15 14 12 16 12 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 2 -1 0 1 -5 -2 -5 -2 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 261 252 250 260 268 287 298 308 314 311 302 270 278 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 125 125 124 123 126 127 129 131 136 138 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 119 119 117 116 118 119 120 124 129 132 134 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 70 67 62 59 57 62 60 65 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 15 14 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 20 29 37 43 42 38 67 57 59 58 53 44 54 200 MB DIV 57 27 22 12 0 12 -5 -2 -1 7 -4 25 9 700-850 TADV -2 6 8 0 -6 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1232 1364 1496 1628 1761 2002 2067 1910 1774 1639 1519 1445 1375 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.6 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.5 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 28.7 29.9 31.2 32.4 33.7 36.0 38.3 40.3 42.2 44.1 46.2 48.4 50.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 4 4 6 11 16 11 15 28 22 28 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 28.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 TWELVE 09/15/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.53 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.54 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 120.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.9% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% Logistic: 1.1% 6.1% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.5% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 3.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 TWELVE 09/15/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 30 33 35 39 43 47 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 28 27 27 29 32 34 38 42 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 24 24 26 29 31 35 39 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 18 20 23 25 29 33 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT