* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122016 09/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 36 36 36 36 39 40 44 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 36 36 36 36 39 40 44 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 32 30 29 29 30 32 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 18 18 21 22 14 12 10 9 9 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 -2 4 4 0 1 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 255 250 247 248 244 264 277 278 280 292 312 287 275 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 122 121 121 123 123 124 126 127 129 131 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 115 115 114 116 115 115 117 118 120 123 128 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 72 70 66 60 59 55 59 56 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 15 15 14 13 14 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 16 32 39 46 45 58 60 71 70 76 66 200 MB DIV 42 57 67 49 37 -2 14 3 -8 0 19 9 15 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 4 4 0 0 -2 -5 -3 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 932 1068 1204 1330 1456 1702 1930 2137 2018 1903 1797 1692 1610 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 25.8 27.0 28.3 29.5 30.7 33.1 35.3 37.3 39.1 40.8 42.6 44.6 46.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 7 3 4 8 15 17 11 18 17 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 9. 10. 14. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.4 25.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 TWELVE 09/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 128.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 TWELVE 09/14/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 36 36 36 36 36 39 40 44 47 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 33 33 33 33 36 37 41 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 29 29 29 29 32 33 37 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 21 21 21 24 25 29 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT