* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122016 09/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 36 37 37 37 38 40 41 44 46 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 36 37 37 37 38 40 41 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 32 30 29 30 31 34 37 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 21 24 28 22 20 12 12 10 10 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -3 2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 261 247 248 252 254 269 286 287 304 309 308 272 289 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 120 117 116 121 123 126 126 127 130 131 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 120 115 111 111 115 117 118 117 116 121 124 130 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 70 69 64 58 55 52 57 58 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 16 15 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -4 2 5 5 25 48 48 83 77 79 63 66 61 200 MB DIV 25 45 62 57 41 18 0 2 16 -8 -5 5 -7 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 7 6 -3 -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 770 912 1061 1177 1313 1630 1963 2121 1924 1809 1708 1642 1573 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.7 18.5 19.1 19.5 19.8 19.1 18.0 17.0 16.3 16.0 16.4 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 24.4 25.5 26.8 28.1 29.5 32.6 35.7 38.0 39.6 40.4 41.5 43.0 45.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 15 14 11 7 5 6 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 1 8 2 2 10 17 13 11 14 27 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 14. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 24.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 TWELVE 09/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 140.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 TWELVE 09/14/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 36 37 37 37 38 40 41 44 46 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 34 34 34 35 37 38 41 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 30 30 30 31 33 34 37 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 23 23 23 24 26 27 30 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT