* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/10/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 114 108 103 81 56 38 28 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 116 114 87 90 49 34 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 115 116 115 102 92 51 34 29 27 27 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 26 31 30 41 39 27 9 15 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 0 7 6 3 -1 -5 8 4 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 235 233 232 222 207 204 186 215 244 254 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.8 28.9 27.3 25.7 24.6 24.1 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 172 172 173 167 151 128 110 100 97 98 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 155 157 158 151 132 109 93 84 82 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 -49.8 -49.7 -48.7 -48.4 -48.7 -49.9 -51.0 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 5 3 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 62 61 50 46 45 48 50 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 47 49 49 47 47 37 27 19 17 12 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 132 133 151 127 149 163 175 99 58 45 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 97 51 55 90 102 18 19 12 -10 -23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 34 39 81 77 47 6 0 13 9 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 77 45 9 -1 14 -181 -344 -478 -599 -703 -817 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.5 26.5 27.9 29.2 31.7 33.6 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.5 81.8 82.1 82.6 83.2 84.7 86.5 88.2 89.2 88.7 86.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 13 14 14 13 11 8 5 7 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 42 11 51 25 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. -2. -13. -27. -39. -50. -57. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -14. -19. -27. -31. -27. -20. -14. -8. -5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -11. -26. -38. -43. -50. -54. -55. -54. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -7. -12. -34. -59. -77. -87. -99.-108.-109.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 24.5 81.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.10 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.51 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 383.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.56 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 13.7% 11.1% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 3.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 6.3% 4.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/10/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 116 114 87 90 49 34 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 112 85 88 47 32 27 25 25 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 84 87 46 31 26 24 24 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 108 67 52 47 45 45 18 18 18 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 55 40 35 33 33 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 116 107 101 98 80 65 60 58 58 31 31 31 IN 12HR 115 116 114 105 99 95 80 75 73 73 46 46 46