* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/10/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 114 112 109 94 70 49 36 26 17 16 17 V (KT) LAND 115 115 114 112 109 76 43 32 28 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 115 116 116 114 109 76 42 31 28 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 20 24 28 41 43 27 18 13 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 3 2 6 0 -5 1 -1 6 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 249 234 229 224 207 208 195 208 240 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.6 27.7 26.1 25.0 24.4 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 172 172 173 164 134 114 103 99 100 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 152 155 157 157 147 116 97 86 84 85 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 -49.0 -48.4 -48.9 -49.7 -50.7 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 5 3 1 0 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 61 59 54 46 44 45 46 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 48 48 49 49 43 32 22 18 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 131 134 140 145 129 157 161 130 62 51 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 89 62 39 94 103 25 40 6 11 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 26 34 39 65 79 26 0 0 10 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 59 82 63 27 0 -61 -290 -433 -543 -624 -734 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.6 25.4 26.6 27.8 30.6 33.1 34.6 35.4 36.2 37.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.3 81.6 82.0 82.4 82.8 84.0 86.0 88.0 89.6 89.4 87.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 13 14 15 13 9 5 6 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 74 6 48 30 48 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 2. -1. -11. -24. -36. -47. -55. -57. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -24. -28. -26. -21. -14. -9. -5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. -3. -17. -31. -38. -44. -48. -49. -48. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -21. -45. -66. -79. -89. -98. -99. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 23.7 81.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.10 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.51 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 402.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.54 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 13.9% 11.4% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 2.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.3% 3.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 6.9% 4.9% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/10/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 115 114 112 109 76 43 32 28 27 27 28 28 18HR AGO 115 114 113 111 108 75 42 31 27 26 26 27 27 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 106 73 40 29 25 24 24 25 25 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 102 69 36 25 21 20 20 21 21 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 63 30 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 115 106 100 97 69 36 25 21 20 20 21 21 IN 12HR 115 115 114 105 99 95 62 51 47 46 46 47 47