* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/10/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 106 106 104 99 79 58 41 33 23 21 21 V (KT) LAND 105 104 106 106 104 80 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 104 104 104 81 46 32 28 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 18 18 23 29 31 40 38 26 14 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 1 1 4 2 -4 -2 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 252 249 237 233 214 209 211 199 213 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.7 28.4 26.5 24.8 24.4 25.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 167 172 173 166 144 120 102 96 104 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 150 156 158 150 126 103 86 79 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -50.1 -48.4 -48.5 -49.3 -49.9 -50.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 8 5 0 1 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 62 61 61 53 45 46 48 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 43 43 48 48 48 47 37 27 20 17 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 124 135 136 149 144 149 140 153 91 62 43 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 108 102 82 40 116 75 24 25 16 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 25 27 43 44 61 59 6 0 6 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 44 84 97 52 19 -14 -244 -432 -585 -628 -547 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.0 24.5 25.6 26.7 29.6 32.3 34.5 35.9 36.2 35.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.3 81.8 82.1 82.4 83.2 84.8 87.0 89.0 89.6 88.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 13 15 14 12 7 1 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 62 26 48 15 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. -5. -16. -26. -36. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -22. -23. -21. -15. -10. -7. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. -9. -23. -33. -37. -44. -45. -45. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -26. -47. -64. -72. -82. -84. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 23.4 80.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.17 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.54 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 422.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.52 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 13.0% 10.5% 8.1% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 5.1% 3.3% 1.9% 0.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 6.5% 4.7% 3.4% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/10/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 104 106 106 104 80 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 105 104 106 106 104 80 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 105 102 101 101 99 75 41 28 24 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 93 69 35 22 18 16 16 16 16 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 62 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 104 95 89 86 68 34 21 17 15 15 15 15 IN 12HR 105 104 106 97 91 87 53 40 36 34 34 34 34